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Targets and Horizons
There is no obligation to submit forecasts for all suggested countries or horizons, and it is up to you to decide which you are comfortable forecasting with your model.
Please take care when submitting the forecasts to be clear which country and horizon you are using: use this page and the formatting guide.
We are currently focused on the forecast target of:
- Weekly ILI incidence
We only use incident forecasts: the count of new ILI cases per
We evaluate forecasts against ILI incidence collated by the ECDC.
Because data can be subject to ongoing revisions, we assume that data for any given week is stable when downloaded 4 weeks later and ignore any further revisions from that moment. This means that all forecasts are only evaluated against data produced 4 weeks after the forecast target date (even if that data point is later revised).
More information on the data sources, and on the ground truth files we make available to forecasters, is available in the target-data directory.
Each modeling team is free to use additional data to inform their models and improve forecasting performance.
For ILI incidence forecasts, we focus on horizons between 1 and 4 weeks ahead. The horizon is computed with respect to the week of the last available ground truth target data point and not to the date when the forecast is produced and submitted.
All dates used in the forecast submission should use the ISO week format. Each week starts on Monday and ends on Sunday.
Date conversion helpers include:
- We provide a csv template with the start and end dates for different weeks.
Forecasts should be submitted once per week at any time after new data has been uploaded (between Friday and Monday) and next Wednesday at 23:59 CET.
You can submit a forecast for a single country, or any combination of the target countries. We use ISO-2 codes to identify countries.
Currently we do not accept sub-national forecasts.