support parallel MinTrace optimization

hierarchicalforecast/core.py

@@ -23,9 +23,9 @@ def _build_fn_name(fn) -> str:
     func_params = fn.__dict__
 
     # Take default parameter out of names
-    args_to_remove = ['insample']
+    args_to_remove = ['insample', 'num_threads']
     if not func_params.get('nonnegative', False):
-        args_to_remove += ['nonnegative']
+        args_to_remove.append('nonnegative')
 
     if fn_name == 'MinTrace' and \
         func_params['method']=='mint_shrink':

hierarchicalforecast/methods.py

@@ -6,6 +6,7 @@
 # %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 3
 import warnings
 from collections import OrderedDict
+from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor
 from copy import deepcopy
 from typing import Callable, Dict, List, Optional, Union
 
@@ -136,7 +137,7 @@ class BottomUp(HReconciler):
 
     **References:**<br>
     - [Orcutt, G.H., Watts, H.W., & Edwards, J.B.(1968). \"Data aggregation and information loss\". The American 
-    Economic Review, 58 , 773{787)](http://www.jstor.org/stable/1815532).
+    Economic Review, 58 , 773(787)](http://www.jstor.org/stable/1815532).
     """
     insample = False
 
@@ -565,13 +566,16 @@ class MinTrace(HReconciler):
     minimizes the squared errors for the coherent forecasts under an unbiasedness assumption; the solution has a 
     closed form.<br>
 
-    $$\mathbf{P}_{\\text{MinT}}=\\left(\mathbf{S}^{\intercal}\mathbf{W}_{h}\mathbf{S}\\right)^{-1}
-    \mathbf{S}^{\intercal}\mathbf{W}^{-1}_{h}$$
+    $$
+    \mathbf{P}_{\\text{MinT}}=\\left(\mathbf{S}^{\intercal}\mathbf{W}_{h}\mathbf{S}\\right)^{-1}
+    \mathbf{S}^{\intercal}\mathbf{W}^{-1}_{h}
+    $$
 
     **Parameters:**<br>
     `method`: str, one of `ols`, `wls_struct`, `wls_var`, `mint_shrink`, `mint_cov`.<br>
     `nonnegative`: bool, reconciled forecasts should be nonnegative?<br>
     `mint_shr_ridge`: float=2e-8, ridge numeric protection to MinTrace-shr covariance estimator.<br>
+    `num_threads`: int=1, number of threads to use for solving the optimization problems.
 
     **References:**<br>
     - [Wickramasuriya, S. L., Athanasopoulos, G., & Hyndman, R. J. (2019). \"Optimal forecast reconciliation for
@@ -584,12 +588,14 @@ class MinTrace(HReconciler):
     def __init__(self, 
                  method: str,
                  nonnegative: bool = False,
-                 mint_shr_ridge: Optional[float] = 2e-8):
+                 mint_shr_ridge: Optional[float] = 2e-8,
+                 num_threads: int = 1):
         self.method = method
         self.nonnegative = nonnegative
         self.insample = method in ['wls_var', 'mint_cov', 'mint_shrink']
         if method == 'mint_shrink':
             self.mint_shr_ridge = mint_shr_ridge
+        self.num_threads = num_threads
 
     def _get_PW_matrices(self, 
                   S: np.ndarray,
@@ -708,9 +714,11 @@ def fit(self,
         if self.nonnegative:
             _, n_bottom = S.shape
             W_inv = np.linalg.pinv(self.W)
-            warnings.warn('Replacing negative forecasts with zero.')
-            y_hat = np.copy(y_hat)
-            y_hat[y_hat < 0] = 0.
+            negatives = y_hat < 0
+            if negatives.any():
+                warnings.warn('Replacing negative forecasts with zero.')
+                y_hat = np.copy(y_hat)
+                y_hat[negatives] = 0.
             # Quadratic progamming formulation
             # here we are solving the quadratic programming problem
             # formulated in the origial paper
@@ -724,8 +732,16 @@ def fit(self,
             b = np.zeros(n_bottom)
             # the quadratic programming problem
             # returns the forecasts of the bottom series
-            bottom_fcts = np.apply_along_axis(lambda y_hat: solve_qp(G=G, a=a @ y_hat, C=C, b=b)[0], 
-                                              axis=0, arr=y_hat)
+            if self.num_threads == 1:
+                bottom_fcts = np.apply_along_axis(lambda y_hat: solve_qp(G=G, a=a @ y_hat, C=C, b=b)[0], 
+                                                  axis=0, arr=y_hat)
+            else:
+                futures = []
+                with ThreadPoolExecutor(self.num_threads) as executor:
+                    for j in range(y_hat.shape[1]):
+                        future = executor.submit(solve_qp, G=G, a=a @ y_hat[:, j], C=C, b=b)
+                        futures.append(future)
+                    bottom_fcts = np.hstack([f.result()[0][:, None] for f in futures])
             if not np.all(bottom_fcts > -1e-8):
                 raise Exception('nonnegative optimization failed')
             # remove negative values close to zero
@@ -933,13 +949,12 @@ class OptimalCombination(MinTrace):
     """
     def __init__(self,
                  method: str,
-                 nonnegative: bool = False):
+                 nonnegative: bool = False,
+                 num_threads: int = 1):
         comb_methods = ['ols', 'wls_struct']
         if method not in comb_methods:
             raise ValueError(f"Optimal Combination class does not support method: \"{method}\"")
-
-        self.method = method
-        self.nonnegative = nonnegative
+        super().__init__(method=method, nonnegative=nonnegative, num_threads=num_threads)
         self.insample = False
 
 # %% ../nbs/methods.ipynb 58
@@ -996,7 +1011,7 @@ class ERM(HReconciler):
     **References:**<br>
     - [Ben Taieb, S., & Koo, B. (2019). Regularized regression for hierarchical forecasting without 
     unbiasedness conditions. In Proceedings of the 25th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge 
-    Discovery & Data Mining KDD '19 (p. 1337{1347). New York, NY, USA: Association for Computing Machinery.](https://doi.org/10.1145/3292500.3330976).<br>
+    Discovery & Data Mining KDD '19 (p. 1337-1347). New York, NY, USA: Association for Computing Machinery.](https://doi.org/10.1145/3292500.3330976).<br>
     """
     def __init__(self,
                  method: str,

hierarchicalforecast/probabilistic_methods.py

@@ -378,7 +378,10 @@ def get_samples(self, num_samples: int=None):
 
         # Initialize PERMBU utility
         rec_samples = base_samples.copy()
-        encoder = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False, dtype=np.float32)
+        try:
+            encoder = OneHotEncoder(sparse_output=False, dtype=np.float32)
+        except TypeError:
+            encoder = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False, dtype=np.float32)
         hier_links = np.vstack(self._nonzero_indexes_by_row(self.S.T))
 
         # BottomUp hierarchy traversing

nbs/core.ipynb

@@ -69,9 +69,9 @@
     "    func_params = fn.__dict__\n",
     "\n",
     "    # Take default parameter out of names\n",
-    "    args_to_remove = ['insample']\n",
+    "    args_to_remove = ['insample', 'num_threads']\n",
     "    if not func_params.get('nonnegative', False):\n",
-    "        args_to_remove += ['nonnegative']\n",
+    "        args_to_remove.append('nonnegative')\n",
     "\n",
     "    if fn_name == 'MinTrace' and \\\n",
     "        func_params['method']=='mint_shrink':\n",
@@ -921,8 +921,7 @@
     "    ]\n",
     ")\n",
     "\n",
-    "fcst.fit(df=train_df)\n",
-    "fcst_df = fcst.forecast(h=12, fitted=True)\n",
+    "fcst_df = fcst.forecast(df=train_df, h=12, fitted=True)\n",
     "fitted_df = fcst.forecast_fitted_values()\n",
     "\n",
     "fcst_df = hrec.reconcile(\n",
@@ -1156,11 +1155,8 @@
     "\n",
     "# Compute base auto-ETS predictions\n",
     "# Careful identifying correct data freq, this data quarterly 'Q'\n",
-    "fcst = StatsForecast(df=Y_train_df,\n",
-    "                     #models=[ETS(season_length=12), Naive()],\n",
-    "                     models=[Naive()],\n",
-    "                     freq='Q', n_jobs=-1)\n",
-    "Y_hat_df = fcst.forecast(h=4, fitted=True)\n",
+    "fcst = StatsForecast(models=[Naive()], freq='Q', n_jobs=-1)\n",
+    "Y_hat_df = fcst.forecast(df=Y_train_df, h=4, fitted=True)\n",
     "Y_fitted_df = fcst.forecast_fitted_values()\n",
     "\n",
     "# Reconcile the base predictions\n",
@@ -1172,7 +1168,7 @@
     "Y_rec_df = hrec.reconcile(Y_hat_df=Y_hat_df, \n",
     "                          Y_df=Y_fitted_df,\n",
     "                          S=S_df, tags=tags)\n",
-    "Y_rec_df.groupby('unique_id').head(2)"
+    "Y_rec_df.groupby('unique_id', observed=True).head(2)"
    ]
   }
  ],

nbs/methods.ipynb

@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@
     "#| export\n",
     "import warnings\n",
     "from collections import OrderedDict\n",
+    "from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor\n",
     "from copy import deepcopy\n",
     "from typing import Callable, Dict, List, Optional, Union\n",
     "\n",
@@ -1028,6 +1029,7 @@
     "    `method`: str, one of `ols`, `wls_struct`, `wls_var`, `mint_shrink`, `mint_cov`.<br>\n",
     "    `nonnegative`: bool, reconciled forecasts should be nonnegative?<br>\n",
     "    `mint_shr_ridge`: float=2e-8, ridge numeric protection to MinTrace-shr covariance estimator.<br>\n",
+    "    `num_threads`: int=1, number of threads to use for solving the optimization problems.\n",
     "\n",
     "    **References:**<br>\n",
     "    - [Wickramasuriya, S. L., Athanasopoulos, G., & Hyndman, R. J. (2019). \\\"Optimal forecast reconciliation for\n",
@@ -1040,12 +1042,14 @@
     "    def __init__(self, \n",
     "                 method: str,\n",
     "                 nonnegative: bool = False,\n",
-    "                 mint_shr_ridge: Optional[float] = 2e-8):\n",
+    "                 mint_shr_ridge: Optional[float] = 2e-8,\n",
+    "                 num_threads: int = 1):\n",
     "        self.method = method\n",
     "        self.nonnegative = nonnegative\n",
     "        self.insample = method in ['wls_var', 'mint_cov', 'mint_shrink']\n",
     "        if method == 'mint_shrink':\n",
     "            self.mint_shr_ridge = mint_shr_ridge\n",
+    "        self.num_threads = num_threads\n",
     "\n",
     "    def _get_PW_matrices(self, \n",
     "                  S: np.ndarray,\n",
@@ -1164,9 +1168,11 @@
     "        if self.nonnegative:\n",
     "            _, n_bottom = S.shape\n",
     "            W_inv = np.linalg.pinv(self.W)\n",
-    "            warnings.warn('Replacing negative forecasts with zero.')\n",
-    "            y_hat = np.copy(y_hat)\n",
-    "            y_hat[y_hat < 0] = 0.\n",
+    "            negatives = y_hat < 0\n",
+    "            if negatives.any():\n",
+    "                warnings.warn('Replacing negative forecasts with zero.')\n",
+    "                y_hat = np.copy(y_hat)\n",
+    "                y_hat[negatives] = 0.\n",
     "            # Quadratic progamming formulation\n",
     "            # here we are solving the quadratic programming problem\n",
     "            # formulated in the origial paper\n",
@@ -1180,8 +1186,16 @@
     "            b = np.zeros(n_bottom)\n",
     "            # the quadratic programming problem\n",
     "            # returns the forecasts of the bottom series\n",
-    "            bottom_fcts = np.apply_along_axis(lambda y_hat: solve_qp(G=G, a=a @ y_hat, C=C, b=b)[0], \n",
-    "                                              axis=0, arr=y_hat)\n",
+    "            if self.num_threads == 1:\n",
+    "                bottom_fcts = np.apply_along_axis(lambda y_hat: solve_qp(G=G, a=a @ y_hat, C=C, b=b)[0], \n",
+    "                                                  axis=0, arr=y_hat)\n",
+    "            else:\n",
+    "                futures = []\n",
+    "                with ThreadPoolExecutor(self.num_threads) as executor:\n",
+    "                    for j in range(y_hat.shape[1]):\n",
+    "                        future = executor.submit(solve_qp, G=G, a=a @ y_hat[:, j], C=C, b=b)\n",
+    "                        futures.append(future)\n",
+    "                    bottom_fcts = np.hstack([f.result()[0][:, None] for f in futures])\n",
     "            if not np.all(bottom_fcts > -1e-8):\n",
     "                raise Exception('nonnegative optimization failed')\n",
     "            # remove negative values close to zero\n",
@@ -1451,6 +1465,9 @@
     "                )['mean'],\n",
     "                S @ y_hat_bottom\n",
     "            )\n",
+    "mintrace_1thr = MinTrace(method='ols', nonnegative=False, num_threads=1).fit(S=S, y_hat=S @ y_hat_bottom)\n",
+    "mintrace_2thr = MinTrace(method='ols', nonnegative=False, num_threads=2).fit(S=S, y_hat=S @ y_hat_bottom)\n",
+    "np.testing.assert_allclose(mintrace_1thr.y_hat, mintrace_2thr.y_hat)\n",
     "with ExceptionExpected(regex='min_trace (mint_cov)*'):\n",
     "    for nonnegative in [False, True]:\n",
     "        cls_min_trace = MinTrace(method='mint_cov', nonnegative=nonnegative)\n",
@@ -1548,13 +1565,12 @@
     "    \"\"\"\n",
     "    def __init__(self,\n",
     "                 method: str,\n",
-    "                 nonnegative: bool = False):\n",
+    "                 nonnegative: bool = False,\n",
+    "                 num_threads: int = 1):\n",
     "        comb_methods = ['ols', 'wls_struct']\n",
     "        if method not in comb_methods:\n",
     "            raise ValueError(f\"Optimal Combination class does not support method: \\\"{method}\\\"\")\n",
-    "\n",
-    "        self.method = method\n",
-    "        self.nonnegative = nonnegative\n",
+    "        super().__init__(method=method, nonnegative=nonnegative, num_threads=num_threads)\n",
     "        self.insample = False"
    ]
   },

nbs/probabilistic_methods.ipynb

@@ -506,7 +506,10 @@
     "\n",
     "        # Initialize PERMBU utility\n",
     "        rec_samples = base_samples.copy()\n",
-    "        encoder = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False, dtype=np.float32)\n",
+    "        try:\n",
+    "            encoder = OneHotEncoder(sparse_output=False, dtype=np.float32)\n",
+    "        except TypeError:\n",
+    "            encoder = OneHotEncoder(sparse=False, dtype=np.float32)\n",
     "        hier_links = np.vstack(self._nonzero_indexes_by_row(self.S.T))\n",
     "\n",
     "        # BottomUp hierarchy traversing\n",