Seasonal-Prediction

Question to be answered: Why can't we predict the tropic Atlantic SST well on seasonal time scale?

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Focused Regions:

• [The tropical Atlantic] (docs/SP_Tropical_Atlantic_SST.markdown)

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Data:

• 4 seasonal forecast systems from [EUROSIP] (http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/seasonal/documentation/eurosip/index.html) database which counts
• 19 seasonal forecast systems from [NMME] (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/) (ref: NMME Project )
  • [Global skill map (10 lead months)] (http://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/International/nmme/) (in binary format with description file (.ctl))
  • [Hincast data (phase I)] (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/)
    • [Data downloading page] (http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/.GFDL-CM2p1/.MONTHLY/.sst/datafiles.html) (GFDL as an example)
  • [Hincast data (phase II)] (https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search.html?Project=NMME)
• 7 forecast systems from [SPECS] (http://www.specs-fp7.eu/)
  • Data available on [Earth System Grid Federation] (http://esgf.llnl.gov/)

Here are four references for seasonal prediction that could be interesting:

• Barnston, A. G., M. K. Tippett, M. L. L'Heureux, S. Li, and D. G. DeWitt, 2011: [Skill of Real-Time Seasonal ENSO Model Predictions during 2002-11: Is Our Capability Increasing? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society] (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00111.1), 93, 631-651.

• Jin, E. K., J. L. Kinter, B. Wang, C. K. Park, I. S. Kang, B. P. Kirtman, J. S. Kug, A. Kumar, J. J. Luo, J. Schemm, J. Shukla, and T. Yamagata, 2008: [Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean-atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics] (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-008-0397-3), 31, 647-664.

• Stockdale, T. N., M. A. Balmaseda, and A. Vidard, 2006: [Tropical Atlantic SST prediction with coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs] (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI3947.1). Journal of Climate, 19, 6047-6061.

• Alexander, M. A., I. Blade, M. Newman, J. R. Lanzante, N. C. Lau, and J. D. Scott, 2002: [The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans] (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0442%282002%29015%3C2205%3ATABTIO%3E2.0.CO%3B2). Journal of Climate, 15, 2205-2231.