Using ML to Generate Grand Prix Predictions for the 2022 F1 Races

This Repo contains my take at attempting to predict the race winners and podiums live for the F1 season of 2022 as a hobby project.

• data_extract_race_results.py - This script is responsible for data scrapping race results data and generating /DWH schema-like tables of practice, qualifying and race results.
• data_transform_ml_dataset_race_predictions.py - This script transforms extracted data into the ml_dataset format.
• ml_train_test.py - This script can be used to test the model predictions historically.
• ml_train_predict.py - This script is used to generate prediction results for the latest upcoming race.

First Testing Results: 19/03/2022 - Training from 2018+ and Testing on the 2021 Season

Predicting Race Winner (Top 1) and Ranking:

Example of the ranking prediction for the last race of 2021 + Winning Probabilities:

• 

Testing Evaluation Measures:

• Rank-Accuracy[22] = 0.65 (Accuracy on predicting the ranking order)
• Future_Winner-Accuracy[22] = 0.95 (Accuracy of predicting the winner of the race and the non-winners)
• Future_Winner-Precision[22] = 0.59 (Precision of predicting the winner of the race)
• Future_Winner-ROC-AUC[22] = 0.89 (ROC-AUC of predicting the winner of the race)
• Future_Winner-F1-Score[22] = 0.59 (F1-Score of predicting the winner of the race)

Predicting Race Podium (Top 3) and Ranking:

Example of the ranking prediction for the last race of 2021 + Podium Probabilities:

• 

Testing Evaluation Measures:

• Rank-Accuracy[22] = 0.64 (Accuracy on predicting the ranking order)
• Future_Podium-Accuracy[22] = 0.87 (Accuracy of predicting the podium of the race and the non-podium)
• Future_Podium-Precision[22] = 0.86 (Precision of predicting the podium of the race)
• Future_Podium-ROC-AUC[22] = 0.91 (ROC-AUC of predicting the podium of the race)
• Future_Podium-F1-Score[22] = 0.43 (F1-Score of predicting the podium of the race)

Predicting Race Points (Top 10) and Ranking:

Example of the ranking prediction for the last race of 2021 + Points Probabilities:

• 

Testing Evaluation Measures:

• Rank-Accuracy[22] = 0.63 (Accuracy on predicting the ranking order)
• Future_Points-Accuracy[22] = 0.49 (Accuracy of predicting the points of the race and the non-points)
• Future_Points-Precision[22] = 0.95 (Precision of predicting the points of the race)
• Future_Points-ROC-AUC[22] = 0.88 (ROC-AUC of predicting the points of the race)
• Future_Points-F1-Score[22] = 0.17 (F1-Score of predicting the points of the race)

2022 Season Predictions

[Date: 19/03/2022] - Prediction 1 - 2022 Bahrain Grand Prix

• Precision (Winner) = 0/1
• Precision (Podium) = 2/3
• Precision (Points) = 7/10
• Accuracy (Ranking) = 15/17 (3 DC 💀)

Pred Rank	Driver	Team	Win Prob (%)	Podium Prob (%)	Points Prob (%)	Final Score (0-1)	Actual Rank	Prediction Result
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	24	23	81	0.0209	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌ Podium: ❌ Winner: ❌
2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	21	25	79	0.0192	1	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
3	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	10	16	78	0.006	3	Ranking: 🎯 \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
4	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	6	23	80	0.0052	2	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
5	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	3	16	76	0.002	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
6	George Russell	Mercedes	3	14	67	0.0014	4	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
7	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	2	13	64	0.0011	6	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
8	Fernando Alonso	Alpine	2	13	68	0.001	9	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️
9	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri	2	13	63	0.0008	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
10	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	1	12	69	0.0008	7	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
11	Lando Norris	McLaren	1	12	60	0.0006	15	Ranking: ❌
12	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	1	13	51	0.0006	5	Ranking: ✔️
13	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	2	13	26	0.0004	8	Ranking: ✔️
14	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	2	12	26	0.0003	12	Ranking: ✔️
15	Mick Schumacher	Haas	1	12	27	0.0003	11	Ranking: ✔️
16	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren	1	12	20	0.0002	14	Ranking: ✔️
17	Guanyu ZhouGuanyu Z	Alfa Romeo	1	12	16	0.0002	10	Ranking: ✔️
18	Alexander Albon	Williams	1	12	15	0.0002	13	Ranking: ✔️
19	Nico Hulkenberg	Aston Martin	1	12	15	0.0002	17	Ranking: ✔️
20	Nicholas Latifi	Williams	1	12	7	0.0001	16	Ranking: ✔️

[Date: 26/03/2022] - Prediction 2 - 2022 Saudi Arabia Grand Prix

• Precision (Winner) = 0/1
• Precision (Podium) = 3/3
• Precision (Points) = 8/10
• Accuracy (Ranking) = 12/15 (5 DC 💀)

Pred Rank	Driver	Team	Win Prob (%)	Podium Prob (%)	Points Prob (%)	Final Score (0-1)	Actual Rank	Prediction Result
1	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	6	61	75	0.0136	3	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️ Winner: ❌
2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	6	57	75	0.0132	2	Ranking: 🎯 \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
3	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	5	59	75	0.0119	1	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
4	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	6	46	72	0.0095	4	Ranking: 🎯 \Points: ✔️
5	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	5	14	63	0.002	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
6	Fernando Alonso	Alpine	4	8	65	0.0011	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
7	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	5	9	40	0.0009	10	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️
8	George Russell	Mercedes	4	6	64	0.0008	5	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
9	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	4	5	68	0.0008	6	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
10	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri	4	5	66	0.0007	8	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
11	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	4	5	54	0.0006	💀	Ranking: ❌
12	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	4	4	53	0.0004	9	Ranking: ✔️
13	Lando Norris	McLaren	4	2	58	0.0002	7	Ranking: ✔️
14	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren	4	2	40	0.0002	💀	Ranking: ❌
15	Guanyu Zhou	Alfa Romeo	4	2	28	0.0001	11	Ranking: ✔️
16	Mick Schumacher	Haas	4	2	26	0.0001	💀	Ranking: ❌
17	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	4	2	25	0.0001	13	Ranking: ✔️
18	Nico Hulkenberg	Aston Martin	4	2	16	0.0001	12	Ranking: ✔️
19	Alexander Albon	Williams	4	2	15	0.0001	14	Ranking: ✔️
20	Nicholas Latifi	Williams	4	2	12	0.0	💀	Ranking: ❌

[Date: 09/04/2022] - Prediction 3 - 2022 Australian Grand Prix

• Precision (Winner) = 0/1
• Precision (Podium) = 2/3
• Precision (Points) = 7/10
• Accuracy (Ranking) = 15/17 (3 DC 💀)

Pred Rank	Driver	Team	Win Prob (%)	Podium Prob (%)	Points Prob (%)	Final Score (0-1)	Actual Rank	Prediction Result
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	27	61	79	0.051	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌ Podium: ❌ Winner: ❌
2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	26	55	82	0.0452	1	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
3	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	25	52	82	0.0419	2	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
4	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	2	30	80	0.0024	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
5	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	3	13	72	0.0014	4	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
6	Lando Norris	McLaren	0	18	77	0.0005	5	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
7	Fernando Alonso	Alpine	1	11	66	0.0005	17	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
8	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	2	3	73	0.0002	7	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
9	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren	1	3	66	0.0001	6	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
10	George Russell	Mercedes	0	5	68	0.0001	3	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
11	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	0	5	48	0.0001	8	Ranking: ✔️
12	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri	0	4	50	0.0001	9	Ranking: ✔️
13	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	0	3	43	0.0001	12	Ranking: ✔️
14	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	0	3	35	0.0	16	Ranking: ❌
15	Sebastian Vettel	Aston Martin	0	5	13	0.0	💀	Ranking: ❌
16	Guanyu Zhou	Alfa Romeo	0	3	18	0.0	11	Ranking: ✔️
17	Mick Schumacher	Haas	0	3	13	0.0	13	Ranking: ✔️
18	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	0	5	8	0.0	14	Ranking: ✔️
19	Alexander Albon	Williams	0	3	10	0.0	10	Ranking: ✔️
20	Nicholas Latifi	Williams	0	3	8	0.0	16	Ranking: ✔️

[Date: 24/04/2022] - Prediction 4 - 2022 Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

• Precision (Winner) = 1/1
• Precision (Podium) = 2/3
• Precision (Points) = 6/10
• Accuracy (Ranking) = 13/18 (2 DC 💀)

Pred Rank	Driver	Team	Win Prob (%)	Podium Prob (%)	Points Prob (%)	Final Score (0-1)	Actual Rank	Prediction Result
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	41	61	78	0.0733	1	Ranking: 🎯 \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️ Winner: ✔️
2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	13	73	80	0.0289	6	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ❌
3	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	5	42	69	0.0059	2	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
4	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	7	24	77	0.0052	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
5	Lando Norris	McLaren	3	26	69	0.002	3	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
6	Fernando Alonso	Alpine	2	8	73	0.0007	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
7	George Russell	Mercedes	4	9	40	0.0006	4	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
8	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	2	9	54	0.0005	13	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
9	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	1	9	68	0.0004	9	Ranking: 🎯 \Points: ✔️
10	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren	1	4	71	0.0002	18	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
11	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	1	6	57	0.0002	5	Ranking: ✔️
12	Guanyu Zhou	Alfa Romeo	1	3	38	0.0001	15	Ranking: ❌
13	Sebastian Vettel	Aston Martin	1	2	42	0.0001	8	Ranking: ✔️
14	Mick Schumacher	Haas	1	3	32	0.0001	17	Ranking: ❌
15	Alexander Albon	Williams	1	2	38	0.0001	11	Ranking: ✔️
16	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	1	2	32	0.0	10	Ranking: ✔️
17	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri	1	3	21	0.0	12	Ranking: ✔️
18	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	1	2	24	0.0	14	Ranking: ✔️
19	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	1	2	21	0.0	7	Ranking: ✔️
20	Nicholas Latifi	Williams	1	2	7	0.0	16	Ranking: ✔️

[Date: 08/05/2022] - Prediction 5 - 2022 Miami Grand Prix

• Precision (Winner) = 0/1
• Precision (Podium) = 2/3
• Precision (Points) = 7/10
• Accuracy (Ranking) = 12/17 (3 DC 💀)

Pred Rank	Driver	Team	Win Prob (%)	Podium Prob (%)	Points Prob (%)	Final Score (0-1)	Actual Rank	Prediction Result
1	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	36	66	78	0.086	2	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️ Winner: ❌
2	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	26	61	80	0.0576	1	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️
3	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	3	54	79	0.0071	4	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ❌
4	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	3	36	77	0.005	3	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
5	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	4	13	70	0.0019	6	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️
6	George Russell	Mercedes	2	9	55	0.0006	5	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
7	Lando Norris	McLaren	1	8	66	0.0004	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
8	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	1	8	65	0.0003	7	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
9	Fernando Alonso	Alpine	2	3	56	0.0002	11	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
10	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri	1	4	60	0.0002	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
11	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	1	3	63	0.0001	8	Ranking: ✔️
12	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren	1	3	46	0.0001	13	Ranking: ✔️
13	Sebastian Vettel	Aston Martin	1	3	37	0.0001	17	Ranking: ❌
14	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	1	3	42	0.0001	10	Ranking: ✔️
15	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	1	3	39	0.0001	12	Ranking: ✔️
16	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	1	3	33	0.0001	16	Ranking: 🎯
17	Alexander Albon	Williams	1	3	14	0.0	9	Ranking: ✔️
18	Mick Schumacher	Haas	1	3	13	0.0	15	Ranking: ✔️
19	Guanyu Zhou	Alfa Romeo	1	3	12	0.0	💀	Ranking: ❌
20	Nicholas Latifi	Williams	1	3	4	0.0	14	Ranking: ✔️

[Date: 22/05/2022] - Prediction 6 - 2022 Spanish Grand Prix

• Precision (Winner) = 1/1
• Precision (Podium) = 1/3
• Precision (Points) = 7/10
• Accuracy (Ranking) = 14/18 (2 DC 💀)

Pred Rank	Driver	Team	Win Prob (%)	Podium Prob (%)	Points Prob (%)	Final Score (0-1)	Actual Rank	Prediction Result
1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	29	55	75	0.0621	1	Ranking: 🎯 \Points: ✔️ Podium: ✔️ Winner: ✔️
2	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	23	57	75	0.0523	💀	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌ Podium: ❌
3	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	10	57	75	0.0231	4	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️ Podium: ❌
4	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	8	22	74	0.0068	5	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ✔️
5	George Russell	Mercedes	2	34	67	0.0035	3	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
6	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	1	13	68	0.0006	2	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
7	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	1	8	58	0.0004	17	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
8	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	1	3	55	0.0001	6	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
9	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren	1	2	47	0.0001	12	Ranking: ❌ \Points: ❌
10	Fernando Alonso	Alpine	1	3	42	0.0001	9	Ranking: ✔️ \Points: ✔️
11	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	1	2	54	0.0001	7	Ranking: ✔️
12	Sebastian Vettel	Aston Martin	2	2	23	0.0001	11	Ranking: ✔️
13	Lando Norris	McLaren	1	2	45	0.0001	8	Ranking: ✔️
14	Mick Schumacher	Haas	1	2	35	0.0001	14	Ranking: 🎯
15	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	1	2	33	0.0001	10	Ranking: ✔️
16	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri	1	2	20	0.0	13	Ranking: ✔️
17	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	1	2	16	0.0	15	Ranking: ✔️
18	Alexander Albon	Williams	1	2	13	0.0	18	Ranking: 🎯
19	Guanyu Zhou	Alfa Romeo	1	1	13	0.0	💀	Ranking: ❌
20	Nicholas Latifi	Williams	1	2	7	0.0	16	Ranking: ✔️